Stalemate and holidays
Holiday on Friday mean this, and next week are in effect four day weeks. The war in Ukraine grinds on but the market is finding that the commodity supply disruption from Russia is having less impact since the biggest commodity importer: China has locked down 30million people and that is reducing demand. Its also clear […]
Wars and Commodities keep inflation bubbling
It feels like a repeat from last week on the political front with the Russian advances in Ukraine being thwarted and possibly forcing a re-think in Moscow and attacks on Aramco installations by the Houthi rebels impacting the oil price. The oil price was coming lower as the US and its allies discussed releasing stocks […]
War and COVID provide headwinds
The week begins with Russia/Ukraine war continuing last weeks peace talks seemingly have gone nowhere and the war itself is taking on a siege mentality where the Russians encounter fierce resistance and don’t advance. This is likely to keep commodity prices elevated unless the talks actually lead to a cessation of hostilities. The weekend attacks […]
US employment data week
The opening week of 2022 looks as though it’s going to be a volatile one as there are some significant data events diarised. The twin factors concerning markets : COVID and inflation will continue to be a focus in 2022 and the resulting action from central banks over inflation remains controversial. Many would argue that […]
Is the Omicron variant the new threat to growth
Non farm payrolls showed US jobs growth slowing and unemployment hit a 21-month low with 594,000 people entering the job market indicating a tightening labour market. This implies the Fed’s tapering and rate rises next year remain on the cards. However, the drop in yields that followed Friday’s numbers shows the market is concerned with […]
COVID is back as a market driver
COVID and its variants are back in the news and having had a significant effect on markets but there may have been a larger reaction because of holiday thinned markets. Last week we mentioned growth stocks being hit if COVID came back and that is what happened again on Friday. It also took oil and […]
Rates – what else?
Opening of the week will be important with the Chinese rate decision due although while expectations of movement are low, they are not zero….. The USD continued to be supported most particularly against the EUR which, after new lockdowns in Europe and Lagarde suggesting again that inflation is temporary and there are no plans to […]
Still watching and listening to central bankers
Even though none of the central banks raised rates, the market was most surprised by the Bank of England who “failed” to raise rates and in turn the market quickly bailed its long GBP positions. Coming up this week we do have central bankers Powell, Lagarde and Bailey all speaking and although rates clearly won’t […]
Rate decision week
All about the central banks and their decisions this week. The ECB were cautious and in trying to follow a market calming line did the opposite when Mme Lagarde opined that inflation would last longer than anticipated hence the market bought EUR on the fear of rate rises. But the rally in EUR didn’t last […]
Powell tips the balance
Jerome Powell said on Friday that “its time to taper…not time to raise rates…” admitting inflation could last longer. The market had already been making that decision seeing inflation being less and less transitory. In fact the markets are now pricing the first rate hike by June 22 and 1.5 hikes by Sep 22. The […]