Inflation leading to recession?
Eid Mubarak to all our readers. The markets are fixated at the moment with inflation and now possible recession, in fact, there’s a danger it will talk itself into one. We have inflation data out of Europe, China and USA this week and its not likely to show much of a slowing and indeed after […]
Higher rates almost inevitable, world growth lower
Eid Mubarak to our readers, and their families. Outside of those celebrating Eid this week is very data heavy and three central banks (Fed, BoE and Reserve Bank of Australia) declare rate decisions. Employment based data out of the US is going to be keenly watched and we have three measures: JOLTS, ADP and Non […]
Recession fears heightened
Rhetoric from FED speakers will be scarce since they are in the pre FOMC blackout period but the mood towards sharply increasing rate increases remains and this rolled over into the US stock market causing a near 3% slump in the Dow and the US$ continues to rally. Rate rises and continued lockdowns in China […]
Russia continues the war keeping commodities supported
London out for holidays on Monday and a thin on economic data make this the third such week where it will be difficult to see past headline trading and wide ranging volatility. At time of writing energy is climbing again – peace talks coming to nothing and it doesn’t look as though Russia are going […]
Stalemate and holidays
Holiday on Friday mean this, and next week are in effect four day weeks. The war in Ukraine grinds on but the market is finding that the commodity supply disruption from Russia is having less impact since the biggest commodity importer: China has locked down 30million people and that is reducing demand. Its also clear […]
Wars and Commodities keep inflation bubbling
It feels like a repeat from last week on the political front with the Russian advances in Ukraine being thwarted and possibly forcing a re-think in Moscow and attacks on Aramco installations by the Houthi rebels impacting the oil price. The oil price was coming lower as the US and its allies discussed releasing stocks […]
War and COVID provide headwinds
The week begins with Russia/Ukraine war continuing last weeks peace talks seemingly have gone nowhere and the war itself is taking on a siege mentality where the Russians encounter fierce resistance and don’t advance. This is likely to keep commodity prices elevated unless the talks actually lead to a cessation of hostilities. The weekend attacks […]
US employment data week
The opening week of 2022 looks as though it’s going to be a volatile one as there are some significant data events diarised. The twin factors concerning markets : COVID and inflation will continue to be a focus in 2022 and the resulting action from central banks over inflation remains controversial. Many would argue that […]
Is the Omicron variant the new threat to growth
Non farm payrolls showed US jobs growth slowing and unemployment hit a 21-month low with 594,000 people entering the job market indicating a tightening labour market. This implies the Fed’s tapering and rate rises next year remain on the cards. However, the drop in yields that followed Friday’s numbers shows the market is concerned with […]
COVID is back as a market driver
COVID and its variants are back in the news and having had a significant effect on markets but there may have been a larger reaction because of holiday thinned markets. Last week we mentioned growth stocks being hit if COVID came back and that is what happened again on Friday. It also took oil and […]